The microbiota in individual habitats differ in both relative composition and absolute abundance. While sequencing approaches determine the relative abundances of taxa and genes, they do not provide information on their absolute abundances. Here, we developed a machine-learning approach to predict fecal microbial loads (microbial cells per gram) solely from relative abundance data. Applying our prediction model to a large-scale metagenomic dataset (n = 34,539), we demonstrated that microbial load is the major determinant of gut microbiome variation and is associated with numerous host factors, including age, diet, and medication. We further found that for several diseases, changes in microbial load, rather than the disease condition itself, more strongly explained alterations in patients' gut microbiome. Adjusting for this effect substantially reduced the statistical significance of the majority of disease-associated species. Our analysis reveals that the fecal microbial load is a major confounder in microbiome studies, highlighting its importance for understanding microbiome variation in health and disease.

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) has become a standard anti-cancer treatment, offering durable clinical benefits. However, the limited response rate of ICB necessitates biomarkers to predict and modulate the efficacy of the therapy. The gut microbiome's influence on ICB efficacy is of particular interest due to its modifiability through various interventions. However, gut microbiome biomarkers for ICB response have been inconsistent across different studies. Here, we identify TANB77, an uncultured and distinct bacterial clade, as the most consistent responder-enriched taxon through meta-analysis of ten independent ICB recipient cohorts. Traditional taxonomy fails to distinguish TANB77 from unrelated taxa, leading to its oversight. Mice with higher gut TANB77 abundance, either naturally or through transplantation, show improved response to anti-PD-1 therapy. Additionally, mice injected with TANB77-derived pilin-like protein exhibit improved anti-PD-1 therapy response, providing in vivo evidence for the beneficial role of the pilin-like protein. These findings suggest that pilins from the TANB77 order may enhance responses to ICB therapy across diverse cohorts of cancer patients.